Earth's Magnetic Pole Reversals Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Earth's Magnetic Pole Reversals - Essay Example â€Å"In 2005, the North Magnetic Pole (NMP) was about 810 km (503 miles) from the Geographic North Pole. The NMP was in the  Arctic Ocean  north of Canada. The South Magnetic Pole (SMP) was about 2,826 km (1,756 miles) from the Geographic South Pole. The SMP was off the coast of  Antarctica  in the direction of Australia† (Russel). The presence of earth’s magnetic field can be explained through the dynamo effect. Deep inside the earth’s core is a solid iron ball with temperatures reaching as high as that on the sun. This inner core is surrounded by a molten mass of iron, called the outer core. The molten mass of iron circulates relative to the motion of the earth. Convection currents within this region generate our planet’s magnetism (Phillip). Over years, many scientists have proven that the earth’s magnetic field is changing. James Ross located the pole for the first time in 1831 after an exhausting journey during which his ship got stuck. No one retrieved it until four years and when they did, they noticed that the pole had shifted from its original position, even though by a small amount. The next observation occurred in 1904 when Ronal Amundsen found the pole again and discovered that it had moved almost fifty kilometers since the days of Ross. This movement of the magnetic poles has hastened in the recent past. â€Å"The pole kept going during the 20th century, north at an average speed of 10 km per year, lately accelerating to 40 km per year (Phillip). This sparked interest of researchers to study this phenomenon in detail. It has been discovered that iron and other heavy metals, present inside molten lave, align themselves in the direction of the external magnetic field when solidifying to form hardened rock. By studying the various layers of these rocks, scientists have measured the historical directions of the Earth’s magnetic field and concluded that the Earth’s poles

Writing issues Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Writing issues - Essay Example Even if I understand that a written message should be coherent and properly organized, I have realized that my essays always lack this quality. After a careful evaluation of my written works, I found out that I am not well organized, creative and thoughtful (Chandler 26). My efforts to communicate through my writings do not bear fruit since my messages are not arranged in a flowing, interesting and convincing manner. Most of the times, my points are left hanging without being justified. Besides, I find it difficult to use comma. As one of the punctuation marks, comma should always be properly used. It has a lot of uses that vary from time to time and from article to article. For the message to be delivered to the readers, it needs to be appropriately used. However, because I do not know how to use it, my writings have been confusing. At times, they even lose meaning as they are misinterpreted by the readers. In order to appeal to my audience, I need to be more organized in my writings. Meaning, I should be keen on the way I use words and phrases. A part from using conjunctions to make my work coherent, I need to properly structure my writings. They should always start from the introduction and end with the conclusion (Rogers 40). If this is done, the writings will be readable and understandable to anyone who gets an opportunity to access them. Besides, I need to learn to be thoughtful, imaginative and creative. Writing should not just be done for the sake of it. It should be a means of communicating to others. However, if it bores, no one would waste their time reading them. In this regard, I will have to ensure that I improve on these areas. They can make my writings to get the approval of the readers. Otherwise, I will be writing for myself (Boltz 722). On the other hand, I need to look for ways through which I can improve the use of comma. First, I should spend adequate time at the Writing Centre. Here, I

Todays Marriages and Families Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 210

Todays Marriages and Families - Assignment Example The magazine photo that I selected has a young girl roughly four years old reaching her arms out to her father while the mother is seated next to her. I deemed this as a structure-functional perception. It appears like the family brought up their child responsibly, provided emotional security and support. Nevertheless, it also might be the attachment theory since the child appears to develop more attachment to her father rather than her mother (Bruhn, 2005). Â  I am always interested in how the number family members in my house are from my mother’s side, which is my grandmother. The only data collection techniques, which can be used, are interviews and questionnaires (Lamanna & Riedmann, 2011). I asked my mother, my mother’s brothers and my mother’s sisters. I discovered that my grandmother has 15 children. I did not discern that I had so many uncles and aunts. Â  The age group, which is rising as a proportion of the U.S. populace, is the elderly, 65-plus years (Bruhn, 2005). For the following two decades, million Boomers will stop working. There will be roughly 10,000 new retirees included in the Medicare and Social Security rolls every day. Individuals are living longer due to U.S.’s advance health care system and clean food (Schwartz & Scott, 2012).

Romeo and Juliet Essay Example for Free

Romeo and Juliet Essay Romeo and Juliet has always been known as one of Shakespeares most popular and tragic love story plays. It is known for its dramatic ending love scene and tale of twisted fate. This essay is based upon the pathos of the last scene of Romeo and Juliet. Pathos is a quality that arouses emotions such as pity, sympathy or despair. This is therefore why the essay is based upon the last scene as it is the most tragic and dramatic scene in the play which successfully arouses sympathy in the reader due to the tragic atmosphere created by Shakespeare. The atmosphere is created in Act 5 by Shakespeares gift of writing that effectively arouses emotions and passions in the reader. For example, Romeos death was unnecessary as Juliet was merely sleeping which Romeo was unaware of. Shakespeare increases the feeling of pathos in the audience by the dramatic use of irony as the audience know that Juliet is alive therefore there is an alternative ending possible however Romeo is convinced of her death and with a broken heart takes his own life leaving the audience feeling a sense of despair at this unnecessary tragedy. Another example of dramatic irony is shown in the quote: thou art not conquerd beautys ensign yet Is crimson in thy lips and in thy cheeks, And deaths pale flag is not advanced there.. Here Romeo is distraught that she is dead and is saying shes looking beautiful, how can she be dead. Of course she isnt dead, merely sleeping, and the audience painfully know this. This then increases the feeling of pathos with the use of dramatic irony. O my love, my wife, Death, that hath suckd the honey of thy breath.. the language used in this section is beautiful and very dramatic, the deep, in depth language has a great affect on the atmosphere, and the feeling and emotions in the audience. Written plays, unlike most novels perhaps, are composed in the present tense which engages the reader as they know directly what is going on in the characters head, rather than being presented historically in the past tense, which has a less dramatic effect on the reader. It is more gripping when written in the present tense as the story unfolds directly before the reader. Heres to my love! (drinks) oh true apothecary ! thy drugs are quick then thus with a kiss I die this quote from Act 5, Scene 3 is when Romeo drinks the poison and is an example of Shakespeares dramatic language. The pathos and atmosphere builds up as Juliet awakes I do remember well where I should be; and where is my Romeo? as she rises to find Romeos body. This scene is very tragic as fate has struck in such a terrible way. This is mostly due to the heavy, strong tragic language used, it has a dramatic affect on the scene. O churl, drunk all, and left no friendly drop To help me after? I will kiss thy lips.. as you can notice from the quote, the language used is so deep and poetic, especially at this dramatic stage in the play. It is so affective as the audience sympathise with the characters, because the language succeeds in involving them with the plot. The build up to the ending scene has a great affect on the pathos, as the letter does not get to Romeo, and there is a worried, anxious atmosphere in the audience- as nobody knows what shall become of Romeo, and if Friar Lawrence will get to Romeo in time to tell him. There is a great build up which grows through the play, and by the ending scene there is a great anxious atmosphere, which has gradually built up through the play. The above scene and setting (in a tomb) creates a sombre mood and makes the reader empathise with the language more effectively (again increasing the whole pathos and feeling to the scene). The scene is taking place in a gloomy tomb with sleeping bodies, including Juliet who is looking peaceful in her sleep, the setting is therefore dark and gloomy and even more tragic. Shakespeare has therefore created a very tragic and saddening mood by choosing that setting for the most dramatic scene. I am almost afraid to stand alone Here in the churchyard, yet I will adventure. The setting is therefore creating an atmosphere as well as the language-which arouses peoples emotions even more and helps contribute to the pathos. To conclude, what contributes towards the pathos of Shakespeares play is the atmosphere he creates through language, characters, scene, setting and ironic situations through his clever development of the storyline, the other characters also contribute, as it seems as though they are all against Romeo and Juliet- apart from Friar Lawrence and Juliets nurse. Friar Lawrences good intentions precipitate the tragedy- although it wasnt his fault and he was only trying to help the difficult situation. As for Old Capulet and Lady Capulet who do make the situation worse-and could in fact be blamed for the tragedy, this is something the audience think about after the play, which characters could be blamed for the tragedy, this therefore does affect the pathos in a great way. The language, setting, characters and build up all come together at the end to create a great atmosphere and pathos.

Motivation Of Employees In The Hotel Industry Tourism Essay

Motivation Of Employees In The Hotel Industry Tourism Essay The last few decades have been characterised by a radical change in management perceptions about the importance of the work force in achievement of strategic objectives of business organisations. Management experts agree that in situations where competitors have similar financial resources and organisational infrastructures, competitive edge can be achieved only through well trained and intensely motivated employee forces. The hotel industry has grown remarkably in the last two decades. With the industry expanding exponentially, capacity builds ups in business and tourism centres have created enormous competition in all its segments. Whilst hotel managers strive to provide good physical facilities to their clients, it is widely accepted that excellence in service quality is best achieved through the efforts of employees to meet customer needs. Motivating employees is thus seen to be a critical task of hotel managers. The dissertation project aims to examine the importance of motivating employees in the hotel industry for the achievement of competitive advantage and the best possible ways and means of doing so. The last few decades, especially the period that commenced from the 1970s, have been characterised by radical changes in management perceptions about the importance of the work force in achieving the strategic objectives of business organisations.  [1]   Whilst traditional management theory treated workers, along with capital, land and machinery, as just one of the four important inputs of business enterprises, current management thought and practice, influenced on one hand by the opinions of experts like Drucker, Porter, Maslow and McGregor, and on the other by dramatically altered business conditions, perceive employees to be critical to organisational success and growth.  [2]   Contemporary developments like globalisation, economic liberalisation, the deconstruction of trade and physical barriers, technological advances, the spread of the internet, instantaneous communication technology, cheaper travel costs and the emergence of China and India as economic power houses have made the world intensely competitive and diminished the superiority of Western business organisations.  [3]  Management experts agree that in economic scenarios where competitors have the same sort of financial resources and organisational infrastructures, competitive edge is mainly achieved through well trained and intensely motivated employee forces.  [4]   The hotel industry has grown remarkably in the last two decades. Globalisation along with greater discretionary incomes in the populations of advanced and developing countries, cheaper travel, open borders and the opening of numerous business and tourists destinations have led to substantial increases in business travel and domestic and international tourism and created enormous opportunities for hotels. Aims and Objectives With the hotel industry expanding exponentially, capacity builds ups in business and tourism centres have created enormous competition in all sectors of the hotel industry.  [5]  Being service oriented in nature, hotels work towards achievement of service quality and improvement of customer satisfaction for achievement of competitive advantage.  [6]   Whilst hotel ownerships strive to provide good physical facilities to their clients, it is widely accepted that excellence in service quality is best achieved through the efforts of employees to meet customer needs  [7]  Motivating employees is thus seen to be a critical task of hotel managements.  [8]   This proposal aims to investigate the contribution of employees in achievement of profitability and competitive advantage in the hotel industry, the importance of motivation in improving employee performance, and the role of managers in motivating employees to improve their performance and commitment. Its objectives are elaborated as follows: To examine the ways and means in which employees can add to the service quality, efficiency, profitability and competitive advantage of the hotel industry. To examine the impact of motivation on the performance of hotel employees. To examine and assess the various ways of motivating employees. To examine the roles of managers in motivating hotel employees. 2. Literature Review Human resource management theory has changed radically over the past few decades. Whilst traditional HR theory was influenced and shaped by scientific management principles embodied in the approaches of Henry Ford and Fredrick Taylor for improvement of worker productivity, the post Second World War period saw the emergence of behavioural experts and psychologists like Maslow, McGregor, Herzberg and Vroom, who discarded Fordist and Taylorist principles and emphasised that worker performance could be much better enhanced by meeting the various needs of workers, training and developing them and empowering them to do their work to the best of their ability.  [9]   Experts like Maslow and Herzberg stress that worker motivation is critical to worker performance and organisational managements need to motivate members of their work force in carefully thought out, well planned and deliberately implemented ways. Maslowà ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢s theory of needs, McGregorà ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢s exposition of theory X and theory Y, Herzbergà ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢s detailing of hygiene and motivating factors, and Vroomà ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢s work on motivating employees deal with the various needs of workers and how they can best be motivated by organisational managements.  [10]   Extant HR theory also places great stress on the need of managers to know methods of motivation and use them appropriately in the work place.  [11]  The evolution of human resources as a management discipline has been characterised by numerous academic and research work on the best possible methods of motivating employees.  [12]   Employees are seen as key inputs in the hotel industry and most well known hotel chains like The Marriot, The Mandarin Orient and The Ritz Carlton are known to have very carefully thought out and well implemented employee performance improvement programmes.  [13]  Motivation plays a key role in such programmes and is a key responsibility of hotel managers.  [14]   The Ritz Carlton, the only two time winner of the famous Malcolm Baldridge awards for quality, is known to have an excellent employee training, development and motivation programme.  [15]  Employees at the Ritz Carlton are motivated through a complex system of policies and procedures that deal with remuneration, training, involvement, responsibility allocation, employee respect and empowerment.  [16]   Employee motivation and the responsibilities of managers in motivating employees are key areas of focus in hotel management theory.  [17]   3. Research Methodology Research Hypotheses The aims and objectives of the project, along with the information obtained during the course of review of available literature, lead to the following research hypotheses: Hypothesis 1: Employees are critical for the achievement of service quality, profitability and competitive advantage in the hotel industry Hypothesis 2: Employee motivation leads to improvement in employee performance Hypothesis 3: Managers can motivate hotel employees in various ways. Research Methods The choice and adoption of appropriate research methods for projects are essentially decided by the nature of the project and the resources available with the researcher.  [18]  With there being two basic methods of social research, namely the quantitative and qualitative approaches, the choice of an appropriate method for this assignment will be shaped by the research hypotheses elaborated above.  [19]   The research hypotheses essentially deal with issues and questions that are how, why and what in nature, and are thus best tackled by use of interpretative qualitative methods, rather than through analysis of the results of number based quantitative surveys.  [20]   Information for the project will be obtained from primary and secondary sources.  [21]  Primary information sources are those that provide information directly from people and organisations who form the subject of research, whereas secondary information is obtained from sources created by people, (e.g. authors, researchers, or media publications), who are unconnected with the research subject.  [22]   It is proposed to use both primary and secondary sources for this research project.  [23]  Whilst substantial information from secondary sources on human resource management, motivational theory, service quality, managerial responsibility and the responsibilities and methods of managers for motivating employees is available in the public domain, primary information can be obtained through study of hotel websites and interviews of people associated with the research subject.  [24]  With the hospitality industry now a globally important industry, a number of academic publications and research studies are available on different aspects of hotel management.  [25]  The study of such sources will enable the researcher to obtain accurate and extensive information on the subject under study.  [26]   The methodology entails the collection of primary and secondary data from the sources elaborated earlier, the qualitative interpretation of obtained information, and its detailed analysis for the purpose of examining the validity of the hypothesis.  [27]   Ethics Care will be taken to ensure that all ethical requirements regarding the conduct of research projects are followed, especially with regard to protection of the rights and confidentiality of primary respondents. Adequate care will be taken to ensure that appropriate credit is given to all information sources.  [28]   Constraints and Limitations The study will be limited by the amount of primary and secondary information accessed by the researcher, as well as the amount of cooperation provided by the primary respondents from the hotel industry. It is envisaged that obtaining appointments with hotel managers may be a difficult task and could delay the gathering of information and data. The researcher plans to start taking appointments with managers in the hotel industry at the earliest in order to maintain the research schedule. 4. Timeline The research is expected to take six months to complete. The timeline of the project is provided below. Function Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Determining of Secondary Information Sources * Study of Secondary Information Sources * * * Determination of Primary Information Sources * * Study of Primary Information Sources * Fixing of Appointments with Primary Respondents * * Conducting of Interviews * Collation of Secondary Information * Compilation of Literature Review * * Compilation of Primary Information * Collation of Data * Data Analysis and Interpretation * Preparation of Rough Draft of Dissertation * Discussion with Tutor * Preparation of Final Dissertation * Word Count: 1610 without Tables

Commodity Price Movements in the Twenty first Century

Commodity Price Movements in the Twenty first Century Commodity Super Cycles and Bubbles Sharp movement in commodity prices, especially of oil, and some base metals like copper, since the turn of the century, have attracted enormous international attention and debate. The price of oil, which shot up from the sedate levels of approximately twenty-eight USD per barrel, a few years ago, to the high seventies, in 2006, sent ripples through the economies of advanced nations, even as it added billions to the current account surpluses of oil rich nations, like Kuwait. While the movement in oil attracted international attention because of its universal usage, prices of items like copper, steel, cement and uranium also soared to new heights. These developments led to intense discussion among economic experts and business thinkers, who were divided in their opinion about the causes of commodity behaviour, as well as its future movement. While a large number of scholars feel that the recent movement in commodity prices is no more than the initial movement of a wave that will last for many more years, if not decades, others put it down to wrong economic policies and the work of market speculators. This research assignment aims to study and explore the various aspects of this extremely intriguing and globally significant development, and thus arrive at findings and conclusions that are able to illuminate the complex topic. Executive Summary This research assignment attempts to delve deeply into the causal factors behind the sharp upward movement in prices of commodities during the last six years. The assignment is structured into sections that describe the situation in totality, and then take up the many theories that have gained ground in recent years on the issue. While many people believe that a commodity super cycle is under way, powered by the demand for materials from an enormously fast growing China, others feel that these movements, like the one in the price of oil, is a twenty-first century reminder of the commodity bubble that took the price of tulips to astronomical heights in seventeenth century Holland. The study includes an analysis of the commodity super cycle, the roles played by the growth of China and India in increasing commodity demand, the effect of liberal monetary policies, and that of speculative activity, in the price movement process. Detailed analyses of the thoughts and writings of experts on the subject, including thinkers like Jim Rogers and financial professionals like Stephen Roach, along with the study of texts and journals available on the subject, have led to findings that have lent themselves to some interesting analyses and conclusions. These will hopefully prove to be relevant in providing fresh perspectives, and increase available knowledge on the issue. 1. Introduction a. Overview Recent years have witnessed enormous changes in the global economic scenario. Much of what is happening in the cross continental market place owes its origin to the vision and determination of a slightly built and thrice married octogenarian, Deng Xiao Ping. Deng, the Chairman of the People’s Republic in the 1980s, introduced broad and sweeping changes in the Chinese economy under the name of the four modernisations. His reforms, which covered agriculture, industry, science and technology, and the military, opened up the Chinese economy, and were instrumental in transforming it into one of the largest and fastest growing economies of the world. (Deng Xiao Ping, 2007) Years of double-digit economic and infrastructural growth in China profoundly affected the economies of other countries, and, in the process, set off a huge tide of economic movement that encompassed the whole world. In the mid nineties, the socialist government of India, threatened by international debts, shrinki ng foreign exchange reserves, and an exasperated population, decided to catch up with its larger neighbour, and initiated a series of economic reforms that led to sharp increases in economic development, and catapulted the country into the ranks of the fastest growing world economies. The unharnessing of these two countries, which together account for a third of global population, from the shackles of state economic control, has created an unprecedented demand for commodities. As China and India rush to make up for decades of low growth, poor living standards, and abysmal poverty, their booming economies are hungrily devouring ever-increasing quantities of metals, agricultural produce and oil products. This insatiable hunger, in the opinion of economists and market analysts, has led to the development of a sustained increase in prices of commodities, known in economic parlance as a commodity super cycle. Other thinkers and columnists have expressed dissenting views, blaming market speculators for building up prices to unrealistic levels and creating artificial bubbles; which were bound to burst, and cover all connected with a good amount of unpleasant and possibly disastrous debris. b. Definition of problem The current upward movement of commodity prices has assumed worrying overtones. The escalating prices of crude oil, which moved up, in a period of a few years, from the regions of the mid twenties per barrel, to that of the high seventies, perplexed and worried governments, and economic thinkers all over the world. Apart from oil, prices of many commodities, particularly metals and agricultural produce, have escalated to unprecedented levels, impacting price indices, affecting buying power, and unsettling economies on a cross continental basis. Price behaviours of different commodities are under detailed scrutiny, with experts trying to pin down their reasons. While the sharp increase in the price of maize is attributed to the diversion of corn for production of bioethanol for the US and Brazilian markets, (Trade aspects of Biofuels, 2007) the increase in prices of oil is thought to be due to its increased consumption in China and India. The huge boom in the Indian stock market, on t he other hand, appears to be due to the large influx of foreign institutional investors, who have taken indices in the last two years to more than twice that of 2005. While the enormous increase in economic activity has resulted in increased profitability for business corporations, and has presumably contributed towards reduction of poverty and want, the accompanying inflation has also brought with it enormous worries, particularly for governments of developing countries. Recent months have seen governments, (under tremendous pressure from angry citizens) and central banks raise prime lending rates, and use other economic tools to suck extra money out of the system, in futile attempts to contain runaway inflation. In the midst of numerous theories, the only constant appears to be in the movements of commodity prices, which continue to climb, of course with periodic pauses, and occasional corrections. The development of a long lasting commodity super cycle, in the opinion of many experts, appears to be the major causal factor behind the present circumstances. In this scenario, it becomes important for economic thinkers to focus on the actual reason s for this phenomenon, and its likely consequences, in order to take corrective action. c. Objective This assignment delves deeply into the issues related to commodity life cycles, and commodity bubbles, from economic, political and social perspectives, and with particular reference to the current global economic scenario. The subject matter is enormous and covers local and international developments in politics, society and economics. The assignment involves examination of primary and secondary information sources, and the study of available literature and research. It makes substantial use of secondary material in the form of texts, journals and magazine articles as well as internet sources for purposes of data availability, analysis and investigation. A good amount of thinking on the subject has occurred in the past few years with numerous experts expressing frequently contradictory and quite confusing views in their syndicated and one-off columns. Despite serious and sincere effort, some important information regarding the topic may well have not found place in the assignment, a deficiency that could limit the validity of its conclusions. The bibliography provides complete details of the accessed information. The order of issues taken up for discussion is sequential, for the sake of logical progression of ideas and thought. 2. Literature Review a. The Commodity Super Cycle Economists have, for decades, believed in the theory of cyclical growth, characterised by periods of growth, followed by years of depression or slump. Events, economies, and political systems move through cycles similar to the natural life cycles of living beings. These cycles, while observable, have no obvious reason and involve changes between periods of comparatively swift increase of production, income and prosperity and periods of relative stagnation. (Business Cycle, 2007) These periodic movements do not follow an established or expected pattern and behave randomly, with extended, or short, growth or slump years. In the stock and commodity markets, these boom and bust periods have been famous for causing widespread prosperity or destruction. Cycles generally comprise of four distinct phases namely contraction, trough, expansion, and peak. Whereas expansions and contractions account for the major portion of the cycle, the troughs and peaks denote the lower and upper turning poin ts where contractions change into expansions and vice versa. These cycles have been the focus of detailed economic study for ages with governments trying, mostly without success, to smoothen slumps, periods that have historically caused widespread unemployment, losses and suffering. Business cycles are as applicable to commodities as to other elements of the economy and are generally measurable in movement of national or regional GDP. Occasionally, commodities move into a phase of upward movement in prices for extended periods, which continue for many years, sometimes even many decades. They mainly occur because of major economic developments that are significant enough to drive demand and consumption on a global basis for long periods. Super cycles form because of the industrialisation or urbanisation of a major economy, (Heap, 2005) a process that normally occurs over decades, and leads to situations wherein increases in supplies of commodities are unable to catch up with increases in their demand. These imbalances, while originating in particular geographical areas, occur for years and result in substantial price increases of commodities, and that too on a global basis, for extended periods. What we can say is that there clearly are long-term cycles and that they are driven by fundamental changes in the world around us. Global wars, the industrial revolution, major innovations in transport and communications are just some of the factors that can instigate long-lasting shifts in economic growth, that in turn stimulate demand for commodities. Increased demand drives prices higher while producers struggle to increase the capacity to meet that demand. Ultimately, prices peak when excess capacity has been developed – the cycle is then completed when demand abates and general surpluses force prices lower. (Guthrie, 2007) Two discernible super cycles have occurred during the last 150 years. (Heap, 2005) Huge economic and infrastructural growth in the USA, during the turn of the nineteenth century, created a super cycle in commodities. Later, commodity super cycles developed during the post war reconstruction of Europe followed by enormous economic activity in Japan. If you look at history, there have always been super cycles in demand for commodities. There was a super- cycle during the British industrial revolution, during America’s huge period of growth before and after the second world war and during Japan’s industrialisation in the 1970s.† (Cooper, 2005) Many economists feel that the movement of commodity prices since the turn of the millennium indicates that the global economy is in the midst of a strong commodity super cycle, a phase that has just about started and still has a long way to go. Gary Dorsch, writing for SafeHaven (2006) states that the Reuters Jefferies Commodity Price Index (CRB), which comprises of futures in â€Å"live cattle, cotton, soybeans, sugar, frozen concentrated orange juice, wheat, cocoa, corn, gold, aluminium, nickel, unleaded gasoline, crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, coffee, silver, copper and lean hogs† has reached levels 91 % higher than what it was four years ago, its highest level in 26 years. Apart from the behaviour of the CRB index, prices of oil have increased seven times from its 1999 levels. Demand for oil is about 85m barrels a day at the moment and most people forecast that it will hit 125m barrels a day in the next 15 to 20 years. I see no way in which this will be met, so oil prices will stay high.† Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, has even forecast that the oil price could hit $100 a barrel in the event of a â€Å"supply shock† — a disruption to the supply of oil as a result of natural disaster, sabotage, war or political upheaval. (Cooper, 2005) Copper has also behaved in virtually the same manner from the lows it saw in 2001. â€Å"Now it’s the turn of the grains, where wheat and particularly corn have exploded higher on the US futures exchanges.† (Guthrie, 2007) A number of other experts are reinforcing this phenomenon. While metals, led by base metals such as copper, aluminium and zinc, as well as precious metals like gold, silver and platinum have, until now, along with oil, led the price charge, prices of agricultural produce are also beginning to rocket. â€Å"Recently however, commodity traders have doubled sugar prices to 24-year highs, and are moving into coffee and soybeans.† (Dorsch, 2006) Prices of iron ore have risen to dizzying heights, practically 72 % in 2005. While tracking of commodity prices is an ongoing activity, the frenetic movement of prices during the last seven years has added another dimension to the issue. Numerous articles, either prophesying its continuation for many more years or predicting a roll back in the near future, pack the pages of financial journals and magazines. Each minute movement in commodity prices is subjected to detailed scrutiny, compared with trends and used as a base for future forecasts. The majority however appears to be in consensus that the current trend of increasing prices, across a cross section of fuel, metal and agricultural commodities should remain in place for quite some time. b. Main Causes behind Current and Expected Price Behaviour in Commodities While numerous major and minor reasons affect commodity price behaviour, this discussion focuses on a few major reasons, widely accepted to be the primary causal factors behind the constant and significant price increases of the past few years. The liberalisation process kick started by Deng Xiao Ping, in China, in the early eighties, led to developments that were possibly beyond his wildest expectations, and catapulted him into the ranks of those whose actions changed today’s world. The implementation of economic reforms accompanied with the opening of the Chinese economy resulted in unprecedented and unimaginable growth rates. During the last twenty-five years, the country’s economy changed from a centrally administered system, largely closed to international trade, to a market oriented economy with a rapidly growing private sector. Reforms, which commenced with the phasing out of collective farming, expanded to incorporate freedom from price control, fiscal decentralization, increased autonomy for state controlled enterprises, a large and diverse banking infrastructure, vibrant stock markets, the growth of privately owned and controlled enterprise and the opening of the economy to trade and investment. As C hina implemented the reforms in a phased manner, the restructuring and consequent efficiencies led to a year on year GDP growth well in excess of 10 % and a tenfold increase in GDP since 1978. The country, in recent years, has overtaken the most advanced nations of the world, and in terms of purchasing power parity, stands second only to the United States. Exports are a key driver behind the Chinese economic miracle, with Chinas currency exchange controls and trade surplus with the US topping $204 billion in 2005, a 25% increase on the previous year and nearly 30% of the total US deficit. The lynchpin of Chinese exports is the low Yuan /dollar exchange rate pegged at 8.11 per dollar, undervalued by 30% to 40% on a trade-weighted basis. (Dorsch, 2006) Growth has also driven enormous spending on infrastructure and urbanisation, with millions of Chinese relocating from villages to urban centres. Foreign investors, from the west, as well as from East Asian economies like Japan and South Korea have invested significantly in the PRC, making it, in many ways, the world’s factory. The country has the largest current account surplus, nearly 180 billion USD, in the world. (CIA Factbook, 2007) This phenomenal economic and industrial growth, involving a ten-fold increase in GDP, has made the country a huge commodity consumer. â€Å"In China, intensity of use is now three times that of the USA, with demand driven by urbanisation, industrialisation and fixed capital formation.† (Heap, 2005) The Chinese miracle, with its huge demand for commodities has affected commodity prices profoundly in the past few years. â€Å"As China’s economy expands, it is sucking in raw materials to build up its infrastructure, including roads, power stations and factories.† (Cooper, 2005) This demand led to the country picking up a huge share of the overall growth in global consumption with growth in internal consumption. â€Å"The International Monetary Fund reports that its share of the overall growth in global consumption of industrial commodities between 2002 and 2005 was massive – 51% for copper, 48% for aluminium, 110% for lead, 87% for nickel, 54% for steel, 86% for tin, 113% for zinc, and 30% for crude oil.† (Guthrie, 2007) The country now accounts 12 % of global industrial production, compared to 6 % in 1995, 4 % of GDP on an exchange rate basis and 13 % on a purchasing power parity basis. Appendix A provides details about China’s demand for various metals. The constantly increasing demand from China, despite regular predictions of slowdown, has served to propel commodity prices year after year. While these price surges have had their periods of relative stagnation, as well as corrections, the demand shows no sign of abating and should grow for many more years. The per capita consumption of beef, for example, in China is 12 pounds per person, compared to 100 pounds per person, in western countries. As perceptions change and the possibility of the country catching up in the prosperity scales with advanced nations becomes a reality, the projected increase in demand assumes overwhelming proportions. While China has been and should continue to be a major driver of commodity prices for many more years to come, other factors have also contributed towards price movement and their effect may well increase in future. India, the world’s second largest country and its’ largest democracy started opening up its economy from the mid nineties. Shackled for years under a bureaucratic mixed economy regime that favoured the public sector, the country suffered from an abysmally slow growth rate for practically fifty years since it achieved independence in 1947. The opening up of the economy, and the introduction of economic reforms, while slower in implementation than China’s, (due primarily to the democratic and debate oriented nature of Indian society), nevertheless picked up steam by the end of the millennium, and entered an era of high growth in the early years of the present decade. The country is today, after China, the second fastest growing economy in the world, and is achieving growth rates of nearly 9 %. While both industry and services are growing at rates much faster than 10 %, agricultural growth has been comparatively slower. Indias Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, wants his country to achieve 10% economic growth in the next two to three years, to create more jobs and help lift a third of the countrys 1.1 billion people out of poverty. Asias fourth-biggest economy expanded 8% in the second and third quarters of 2005. Singhs government wants industrial production, which makes up a quarter of Indias economy, to grow 10% annually to boost the incomes of Indians, one in three of whom live on less than $1 a day. Indias industrial production grew at an annualized 8.3% rate between April and November 2005, faster than major economies like US, UK, the Euro zone, Japan, Brazil, Indonesia and Russia. Only China and Argentina recorded faster industrial production rates of 16.6%, and 9.6% respectively. (Dorsch, 2006) In India, domestic demand makes up practically 70 % of the national GDP and dominates the economy, as opposed to exports, in many other nations. Indian imports, though lesser than that of China, doubled in the last three years, adding to commodity demand and strengthening the consumer super cycle. Terming Indias economic growth since 1991 phenomenal, World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz on Saturday said its GDP (gross domestic product) growth could be pushed up by one to two per cent with speedy reforms. He said: The dynamism shown by India in the last 15 years is phenomenal. India can do better A couple of percentage more growth can be possible. But it needs sound fiscal and monetary policies. Continuity of reforms was important for the high growth, evident in the last 15 years. Indias incredible growth story was a policy model to the world. It showed continued development in democracy and open society. (India’s growth story, 2005) Apart from India, the two other BRIC countries, Brazil and Russia, are also growing strongly, strengthening the demand for major commodities. While the sharp spurt in growth shown by Japan in recent years has also fuelled demand, the growth generated by the BRIC countries, as well as economies of countries like Argentina and South Africa should continue for many years, even for some decades, as these countries try to achieve parity with the advanced nations. Monetary policies followed by the central banks of most countries have also played a significant role in fuelling commodity price increases. Central banks of most countries, Japan, Europe, China and India have followed super easy money policies from the beginning of the millennium right upto the last quarter of 2006 and this along with the demand from the Chinese and Indian economies have worked towards pushing prices up to record levels. The Peoples Bank of China increased its M2 money supply by 18.3% last year, issuing more Yuan to soak up foreign currency earned through foreign trade and direct investment into Chinese factories from abroad. Explosive money supply growth, in turn, boosted domestic retail sales by 13% last year, and industrial production was 16.6% higher in November from a year earlier. Chinas central bank raised its M2 money supply target to 17% in the third quarter from 15% earlier, to offset stronger demand for the Yuan, and maintain the peg at 8.11 per US dollar. (Guthrie, 2007) In Japan, money markets have received trillions of yen, more than required by local Japanese banks, pushing interest rates on deposits to levels even below zero. This enormous amount of excess and free liquidity has enabled both Japanese and hedge fund traders to take up large speculative positions in global commodity markets. While conservative counsel advocates a stricter monetary policy, authorities are reluctant to make changes in a policy that has seen overnight lending rates staying at zero for nearly five years. In Europe, loose money availability has also helped in fuelling inflation and price instability. The growth rate of M3 Money supply in Europe in Europe has become considerably higher than the previous year, and helped in lifting stock markets to higher levels. All over the world, bankers have seen commodity indices running away but refrained from taking action lest growth rates get hurt. Another factor that hinders bureaucrats from taking action after inflation starts hitting significantly high levels is the underlying fear of small course-corrective measures not working and the risk of dampening growth.† If a central bank stops excess liquidity too late it has to raise rates much more strongly and that causes turbulence on the markets.† (Guthrie, 2007) Indian policy makers, found to their chagrin, that inflation growth rates that had crossed 6.5 % (and were threatening to destabilize the government) proved immune to three doses of interest rate hikes, by 50 basis points each time. A sharp hike in borrowing and lending rates took place in recent weeks. With inflation up at 6.4 per cent and the RBI saying it will take â€Å"all the necessary monetary measures†, further hikes in interest rates could come. But will raising interest rates bring inflation under control? Does India have the markets and institutional framework in which raising interest rates is an effective instrument for inflation control? Does India have a central bank that has learned how to conduct monetary policy in an open market economy? The answer to these questions is: No. In this sphere, India lags behind modern practices. (Patnaik, 2007) While lack of faith in the measures taken by one’s own government appears to be a generic trait with analysts all over the world, sustained increases in commodity prices have led to a consensus that economic and monetary policies, followed all over the world, have been unbalanced in their blind preference towards growth, to the exclusion of inflation. The unbridled use of liberal monetary policies has contributed towards this present climate of inflation, and in strengthening the commodity super cycle. The creation of shortages because of rapid and unexpected growth in consumption is a fait accompli, and a short-term discomfort economists are ready to bear, (in the interest of growth), until increased supply stabilizes the situation. In the absence of measured intervention, unbridled increase in prices, apart from inducing speculative activity, also attracts hordes of genuine investors, big-ticket investment funds, pension funds, and even individual retail investors. Pension funds, as well as small, retail investors are looking to commodities as a crucial part of diversification of any investment portfolio. Although schizophrenic commodity day traders could decide to turn massive paper profits into hard cash at a moments notice, causing a 5% shakeout, the longer-term odds still favor a continuation of the Commodity Super (Guthrie, 2007) c. The Future of the Present Inflationary Movement Commodity super cycles, by their nature and their reasons of origin, run for extended periods, for many years and some times for decades. Modern day literature refers to just two or three super cycle in the last two centuries, one caused by American industrial growth at the beginning of the twentieth century, and the other caused by post war reconstruction in Europe, followed by intense Japanese economic activity. The second super cycle lasted for nearly three decades from the late forties until the depression of the eighties. The current super cycle, if at all it is one, has gained momentum only during the last six years, and prima facie still has a long way to go. While monetary policies of powerful and rich individual nations, like the USA and Japan, as well as regional groupings, like Europe, will be able to influence commodity prices through tightening or loosening money supply, the extent of the commodity super cycle will depend primarily upon the growth stories being played ou t in China and India, and to some extent in the other two countries, Brazil and Russia. While China and India are both on the fast track to economic prosperity, they remain countries with low per capita incomes and consumption. The desire to achieve economic prosperity, in these economies, will not be satisfied with achievement of national GDP targets but will continue until individual aspirations of people are met in these two countries. We have China embracing capitalism. We have India embracing capitalism. That’s brought 2.2 billion people into play as very ambitious earners, who aspire to middle class status. If we take Asia, there are 3.5 billion people who aspire to the same middle class lifestyle many of us in the West take for granted. If we look further beyond Asia, this same phenomenon is evident with many other developing countries. We see it in parts of the Middle East with the Dubai city-state as an example. (Finch, 2006) Two simple examples will serve to elaborate this argument. As stated earlier, per capita consumption of beef in China is 12 pounds per person whereas it is more than 100 pounds per person in the advanced countries. Similarly, in India, where the majority of the people do not eat beef, and around fifty percent are vegetarian, the per capita consumption of chicken is around 12 pounds compared to more than 200 pounds in the west. A recent report by Goldman Sachs states that even if, as predicted, both these countries reach the GDP levels of the USA by 2050, their per capita income will not exceed half that of the USA. This gives rise to two inferences, (a) the huge amount of latent demand in these countries and (b) the extended period over which these growth stories will possibly play out. Indias Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, wants his country to achieve 10% economic growth in the next two to three years, to create more jobs and help lift a third of the countrys 1.1 billion people out of poverty. Singhs government wants industrial production, which makes up a quarter of Indias economy, to grow 10% annually to boost the incomes of Indians, one in three of whom live on less than $1 a day. (Dorsch, 2006) Apart from the enormous potential for prolonged economic and industrial growth that can occur because of progress in these two countries, the fact that India is moving roughly ten years behind China, could lead to a situation where India’s growth rates start improving further when China’s starts tapering off; thus extending the period of the cycle. Climbing markets are prone to periods of lulls, stagnation and even correction. Experts feel that these phenomena are bound to continue to happen, but the demand for commodities will grow at such an overwhelming pace, not just in China and India, but also in other countries of the developing world that it will soon reassert itself and bring back bullish behaviour. While there is intense speculation in academic circles about the probable period of the inflationary run, very few people are ready to take a bet on its probable date of demise. Economists are quite sure of phases of economic activity where waves of activity and growth follow periods of slowdown and even stagnation. The problem arises when quantification is called for. In the past Dewey and Dakin in their book â€Å"Cycles: The Science of Prediction† (1947) that a super cycle that moves from trough to peak to trough can last for as long as fifty to sixty years. Obviously, these longer waves comprise of a number of sm aller waves, where activity increases and decreases in finite periods Even as convinced a believer in the commodity bull cycle as Jim Rogers points out that the shortest boom lasted 15 years, while the longest lasted 23 years. His conclusion is that we have much further to go, but don’t expect a great deal more precision than that. Oh, and don’t forget that we’ll endure some huge corrections along the way. (Guthrie, 2007) Much of the current discussion on commodity super cycles owes its initiation to

Buying Favor: Why Congress Depends on Funding From Special Interests Es

There is a problem with Congress. The previous sentence summarizes the collective sentiment of the general public concerning the legislative branch of the federal government. A 2010 Gallop poll revealed that over eighty-nine percent of Americans have no confidence in Congress (Lessig 2). It is theorized that Congress is so far out of favor because it has been unable to resolve the nation’s most important issues, such as Medicare, Medicaid, immigration reform, and the growing budget deficit, due to seemingly trivial reasons. Some theorize this lack of significant legislative action is due to growing partisanship between the system’s dominate political parties, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. According to Mark Brewer, â€Å"Politicians†¦are more likely to support their party and oppose the other party today than any other time since the 1950s (219).† Another hypothesis explaining the lack of legislative action by Congress is the special in terest theory. According to the theory’s advocates, the Congress has not accomplished much because of the institution’s dependency on large-scale campaign contributions; and these donors would rather there be little regulation or regulations supporting their specific industry. To support this hypothesis, Harvard University law professor Lawrence Lessig authored Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress–and a Plan to Stop It in 2011. The book details the effect of campaign funding by special interests and its effect on congressmembers and government policies. Within Republic, Lost, Lessig attempts to draw interest to the issue he believes is the reason for the federal government’s inactivity: dependence corruption. He argues congressmembers have become unresponsive to the will ... ...ed States Trade Representative. â€Å"Statement by U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk on Congressional Passage of Trade Agreements, Trade Adjustment Assistance and Key Preference Programs.† Web. 4 May 2012. . â€Å"Public Support for Increased Trade, Except With South Korea and China.† 9 Nov. 2010. Pew Research Center. Web. 4 May 2012. Tea Party Platform. â€Å"Ten Core Beliefs of the Modern-Day Tea Party Movement.† 2011. Teapartyplatform.com. Web. 4 May 2012. . United States Bureau of the Census. â€Å"Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2010.† By Thom File and Sarah Crissy. May 2010. Census Bureau. Web. 4 May 2012. .